Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS) reported 30% revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026 and said it expects to open approximately 250 shops next year, even as executives acknowledged consumer volatility and tougher sales comparisons ahead.
Revenue reached $550 million for the quarter ended September 30, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, rose 30% to $101 million. Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.25 from $0.19 a year earlier.
Systemwide same-shop sales increased 4.4%, marking the company’s 14th consecutive quarter of growth on that measure. Company-operated same-shop sales rose 5.4%, and Dutch Bros recorded its ninth consecutive quarter of customer visit growth, CEO and President Christine Barone said on the November 4 earnings call.
Outlook reflects consumer uncertainty
Dutch Bros updated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting revenue of at least $2.1 billion, system same-shop sales growth of at least 5% and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $380 million. It expects capital expenditures of $370 million to $390 million and remains confident it will open at least 185 system shops this year.
CFO Josh Guenser said the same-shop sales outlook incorporates tougher customer visit comparisons in the fourth quarter, a reduced benefit to customer spending from the earlier rollout of hot food, and a continuation of the volatile consumer environment.
Barone said the company was pleased with its October performance and the start of the holiday season, but was being mindful of pressures including gas and utility prices. She described the volatility experienced in the third quarter as relatively limited and broadly distributed, with no particular region or shop cohort standing out.
Guenser said elevated utility and freight costs were also factored into the updated outlook and were expected to persist into the fourth quarter.
Expansion and shop economics
Dutch Bros opened 48 system shops during the third quarter, bringing its total to 1,273. Barone said the company has visibility into the real estate pipeline needed to reach its goal of 2,029 shops in 2029.
The approximately 250 shops expected in 2027 will be primarily in existing states and primarily company-operated, executives said. Guenser said the plan includes occasional conversions of sites from other operators but does not assume large-scale acquisitions or purchases of groups of sites.
The company’s strategy emphasizes adding density in existing markets. Barone acknowledged that new shops can draw sales from existing locations but said the company considers that effect in its modeling. Guenser said the faster development pace could lead to a higher level of cannibalization next year, without quantifying the expected impact.
New shops opened in the third quarter were annualizing at approximately $2 million in sales, Guenser said, above the company’s underwriting framework of $1.8 million in the second year. He expects new-shop performance to move toward that framework in 2027 as Dutch Bros adds more locations within existing markets.
Company-operated shop contribution margin increased 30 basis points year over year to 28.1% in the third quarter. The result included approximately $4 million in tariff refunds. Guenser said fourth-quarter margins would be lower than third-quarter levels because those refunds would not recur and seasonal changes in product mix would increase costs.
Looking further ahead, Guenser said elevated coffee prices could continue to affect results in 2027, while a shift toward more build-to-suit leases would keep occupancy costs elevated. The company could consider additional price increases if coffee costs remain high for longer, he said.
Menu and digital initiatives
Barone said Dutch Bros plans to introduce a refreshed matcha platform in 2027 and is testing additional hot food items. The company completed its hot food rollout across company-operated shops in the second quarter and is extending it to eligible franchise shops during the second half of 2026.
Energy drinks accounted for 27% of the product mix, up from roughly 25% before the early May launch of Myst Energy Refreshers, Barone said. She added that the platform continued to perform well despite a competitor’s launch during the third quarter.
On the digital side, approximately 74% of customer visits in the third quarter were through Dutch Rewards, while order-ahead represented about 17% of visits, up four percentage points from a year earlier. Barone said the company is also piloting delivery with DoorDash in several markets.
Dutch Bros plans to add product-based segmentation to its rewards database next year, building on its work to group customers by visit frequency. Barone said that could help the company introduce customers to different beverages and encourage additional visits.
About Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS)
Dutch Bros Inc is a drive-thru beverage company that operates and franchises coffee shops across the United States. The company is known for its made-to-order drinks, fast service and community-focused brand.
Its menu includes hot, iced and blended coffee beverages, along with specialty drinks such as energy drinks, teas, lemonades, smoothies and other noncoffee refreshments. Dutch Bros also offers packaged products and branded merchandise through select locations and digital channels.
Dutch Bros was founded in 1992 in Grants Pass, Oregon, by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma.
