Dana (NYSE:DAN) used its Capital Markets Day to outline “Dana 2030,” a bottoms-up strategic and operating plan the company said was developed by five cross-functional teams of roughly 60 level II and level III executives following the sale of its Off-Highway business. Management characterized the effort as a company-wide “reimagining” intended to reset strategy, improve profitability, and redeploy investment toward more stable and higher-return opportunities.
Dana 2030 targets and capital allocation
The company reiterated long-term targets previously previewed on its Q4 earnings call. Dana said it expects revenue to reach $10 billion by 2030, implying about a 6% compound annual growth rate. Dana also said it is targeting 14%–15% adjusted EBITDA margins by the end of the decade, representing an expansion of roughly 400 basis points from current-year guidance, with management describing the margin plan as “fairly ratable” rather than back-end loaded.
On shareholder returns, management highlighted a five-year plan that includes $2 billion of share repurchases and $250 million in dividends. CFO Timothy Kraus said the company had repurchased about $120 million year-to-date and remains committed to returning $300 million this year. Dana said it intends to keep leverage at one turn or less, describing a “best in sector” balance sheet as central to valuation and flexibility through business cycles.
Company snapshot and recent actions
Incoming CEO Byron Foster provided an overview of the post-Off-Highway Dana. The company reported $7.5 billion in revenue last year, with 70% tied to light vehicle and 30% to commercial vehicle. Dana said revenue is geographically weighted to North America (60%), followed by Europe (20%), Asia (11%), and South America (9%). The company said roughly 12% of revenue comes from the aftermarket channel.
Foster said backlog is up 33% year-over-year to $750 million (reported on a three-year basis), and that the same measure would be $1.15 billion through 2030 on a five-year view. He also cited improvement in EBITDA margin to “just over 8%,” driven in part by cost actions and tariff mitigation and recovery efforts.
Dana’s Off-Highway sale closed Jan. 1 for $2.7 billion. Foster said the company repurchased 34 million shares (about 23% of shares outstanding) for $704 million and noted that Dana shares delivered a 111% return over the prior year.
Three growth pillars: traditional products, aftermarket, applied technologies
Management organized the plan around five elements, with the first three focused on growth. Foster described a “pivot back” toward internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid opportunities as customer electrification plans are revisited. He said Dana is evaluating product-line profitability down to the SKU and plant level, using a minimum 10% EBITDA hurdle for product lines and parts, with actions ranging from cost and commercial changes to exiting unprofitable items. He provided an example from a gasket plant in which profitability peaked at roughly 150 of 665 part numbers, with later parts producing little to negative EBITDA contribution.
Foster also emphasized “protecting the base” through long-cycle platform wins, including securing Ford Super Duty supply through 2038 and citing other platforms such as Wrangler (secured through 2029) and Jaguar Land Rover truck programs (secured through 2036). He also highlighted a commercial vehicle win with Isuzu, including an incremental $25 million catalog expansion launching in February next year, and a share-growth example in India with Mahindra involving $50 million of incremental revenue beginning mid-2026.
For the commercial vehicle market, Foster said Dana’s plan assumes a recovery from trough volumes, citing forecast growth in both Class V–VII and Class VIII segments. He said total truck market volumes are expected to grow at about a 9% CAGR, while Dana targets closer to a 15% CAGR in its commercial vehicle business, supported by investments in dealer and fleet coverage intended to drive $200 million in incremental “pull-through” sales.
Aftermarket president Brian Pour said Dana’s global aftermarket business is built around premium brands Spicer and Victor Reinz, along with the newer Tru-Cool thermal management brand. He said the business generates “just over” $850 million in annual revenue, with sales split roughly 60/40 between light and commercial vehicle end markets and about 85% sourced from North America. Pour estimated Dana’s serviceable addressable aftermarket to be approximately $6.6 billion.
Pour outlined targets to add at least $200 million in annual aftermarket revenue and $65 million of incremental EBITDA. He described three workstreams:
- Demand planning and distribution optimization: Improving fill rates via enhanced analytics and “agentic AI agents” supporting a structured SIOP process, revisiting the distribution footprint, and investing in automation across distribution centers.
- Pricing, customer segmentation, and loyalty: Shifting from cost-plus list pricing to perceived value-based pricing; implementing tiered customer segmentation; launching a QR-based installer loyalty and incentive program to move from a push to a demand model.
- Sales enablement and market share growth: Expanding sales, product management, content, and category management resources, and increasing marketing and AI-enabled sales tools.
He said retail is the newest channel and the most significant near-term growth opportunity. Pour said Dana has secured contracts and “significant market share” with three major retailers—AutoZone, NAPA, and Advance Auto Parts—representing more than 17,000 storefronts in the U.S. and Canada. A key category focus is Victor Reinz sealing products, where he said Dana expects $90 million in incremental annual revenue in North America and a roadmap to deliver $135 million of incremental annual revenue within the category.
Chief Technology Officer Seth Metzger presented the “Applied Technologies” pillar, which he described as applying Dana’s existing capabilities in new ways. He said Dana’s EV strategy has shifted toward “high-value powertrain segments,” a platform approach to reduce cost and complexity, and risk-sharing with OEMs. Metzger said Dana’s five-year net new EV sales backlog is about $400 million through 2028 and about $575 million through 2030, included within the overall backlog disclosed earlier.
Metzger also discussed EV adoption trends, noting weakening North American outlook versus prior forecasts, relative stabilization in Europe, and stronger outlook in Asia-Pacific, while emphasizing continued growth in all regions. He said Dana’s electrified business was unprofitable in 2024 and earlier, but achieved approximately 4% profitability in 2025. Looking forward, he said Dana expects electrified product sales to exceed $1.1 billion with margins greater than 10% as programs launch and scale.
Metzger announced a new heavy-duty pickup truck e-axle win tied to a range-extended EV platform, with expected average annual sales of about $200 million at maturity and start of production in 2029.
Beyond EV, Metzger said Dana generated over 300 adjacent-market ideas and narrowed them to five themes: high-performance compute thermal management, refrigerant heat exchangers, material handling, powersports, and defense. He cited total addressable market additions of “over $6 billion” and said the company is targeting about $400 million of incremental revenue at attractive margins from adjacent opportunities.
Margin enhancement: automation, make/buy, and footprint
Operations leader Chris Clark described manufacturing excellence as a central margin lever, emphasizing automation (robots, cobots, and autonomous mobile robots), make-versus-buy decisions, and footprint optimization. He highlighted examples where automation improved efficiency and quality, including a robotic tube-loading cell with 20% efficiency gains and a seven-month payback, and a cobot-based process that reduced downstream scrap by more than 80%. Clark said Dana has more than 100 cobot applications globally, up from six three years ago, and aims to expand AMR deployments from about 50 to 200 over the next three-and-a-half years.
Clark said Dana has identified over 300 projects and completed 50 already. He said manufacturing excellence initiatives are expected to contribute $175 million of accretive value by 2030. On footprint, he said Dana has targeted seven sites for consolidation and/or idling, freeing about 1 million square feet and delivering about $25 million of annual savings by 2030, with additional benefits expected beyond 2030 due to long lead times.
Financial bridge and Q&A highlights
Kraus said Dana’s plan reflects about $2.5 billion of top-line growth from 2025 to 2030, with “just under” $2 billion attributed to traditional products. He said aftermarket is expected to grow from about $850 million to “just over” $1 billion by 2030, and Applied Technologies is modeled at $400 million in the plan. Kraus also outlined an incremental $50 million structural cost reduction target over five years, following the removal of $325 million of costs in 2025.
He said Dana expects free cash flow to rise to about $600 million by 2030, and discussed a shift in capital deployment versus the prior five years, when the company emphasized EV-related CapEx. Under the 2026–2030 plan, Kraus said Dana expects about $4 billion of operating cash flow, nearly half of which is planned for CapEx, while still enabling substantial shareholder returns.
In Q&A, management said aftermarket sealing share gains in North America are supported by introducing OE-quality Victor Reinz products and retailers seeking to diversify supply. On adjacent markets, Metzger said newer categories like compute cooling and refrigerant heat exchangers are in growth phases without entrenched players, while other segments feature disruption and technology change that can open share opportunities. Executives also addressed questions on Chinese OEM entry risk, stating Dana’s North American exposure is concentrated in large trucks and SUVs and that the company is not heavily reliant on passenger car EV growth, while noting existing relationships with some Chinese OEMs in China.
Management closed by reiterating that the plan is not intended to be back-end loaded, emphasizing targeted annual margin expansion of roughly 60–100 basis points. The company also cited a 2030 EPS view of roughly $8 per share, contingent on buybacks and other assumptions discussed during the presentation.
About Dana (NYSE:DAN)
Dana Incorporated is a global leader in the design and manufacture of drivetrain, sealing, and thermal-management technologies for the automotive, commercial vehicle, off-highway and industrial markets. The company’s product portfolio includes axles, driveshafts, transmissions, e-Propulsion systems and thermal-management assemblies that help improve fuel efficiency, reduce emissions and enhance vehicle performance. Dana’s expertise spans internal combustion and electrified powertrains, positioning it to support both traditional and next-generation mobility solutions.
Founded in 1904 by Clarence W.
