Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) swings to a Q3 profit and lifts its cash outlook

What happened

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) swung to a third-quarter profit and raised its 2026 revenue and year-end cash forecasts on Nov. 6. The profit is real, but so is the financing behind the stronger cash outlook. Holders should read the two separately.

Revenue rose 29% to $1.3 billion from $1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2025. The main driver was higher international COVID vaccine sales, backed by deliveries under long-term government partnerships.

Net income was $162 million, against a net loss of $200 million a year earlier. Income from operations was $130 million, compared with a loss of $260 million. Diluted earnings per share were $0.38.

Moderna now expects 2026 revenue growth of 15% to 25%, up from a previous outlook of up to 10%. It expects year-end cash and investments of $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, up from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Third-quarter revenue	$1.3 billion	from $1.0 billion, +29%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Third-quarter net income (loss)	$162 million	from -$200 million, +$362 million	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Third-quarter diluted EPS	$0.38	from -$0.51, +$0.89	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
2026 revenue growth outlook	15% to 25%	from up to 10% (previous outlook)	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Year-end 2026 cash and investments outlook	$8.1 billion to $8.3 billion	from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion (previous outlook)	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Cash, cash equivalents and investments	$8.0 billion	from $6.9 billion (June 30, 2026), +$1.1 billion	Calculated from SEC 8-K

Read more: Moderna (MRNA) company research

Where the cash outlook comes from

The filing says the higher cash forecast reflects better operations and the convertible notes proceeds. In September, Moderna completed a convertible senior notes offering of about $3.0 billion in principal. It bought capped calls, which are meant to limit future dilution, and paid fees. That left about $2.6 billion in net proceeds.

Cash, cash equivalents and investments stood at $8.0 billion on Sept. 30, up from $6.9 billion on June 30. A $950 million payment on the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter, plus cash used in operations, offset part of the notes proceeds. Most third-quarter product sales were still uncollected at quarter-end.

The new year-end range sits only slightly above the Sept. 30 balance. The raised forecast mostly reflects cash already on the balance sheet. It also leaves out the credit facility capacity still available to Moderna.

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Costs, profit and cash burn

Spending moved in different directions. Research and development expenses fell 27% to $583 million. The filing credits lower clinical costs after certain late-stage infectious disease studies wound down, plus cost efficiencies. Cost of sales rose 54% to $318 million on higher product sales volume and other manufacturing-related costs. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 5% to $282 million.

For the full year, Moderna now expects research and development spending of about $2.7 billion, down from about $2.9 billion. Its expected cost of sales of about $1.7 billion includes the previously announced $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge. That is a one-time item, not a change in operations.

One quarter of profit does not erase the year's loss. Moderna's net loss for the nine months ended Sept. 30 was $1.96 billion. Net cash used in operating activities was $2.72 billion, compared with $2.80 billion a year earlier.

Products and pipeline in the filing

In August, Moderna received FDA approval for mFLUSIVA, its seasonal influenza vaccine, for adults aged 50 to 64. It also won accelerated approval for adults 65 and older. It is the company's fifth approved product globally. Approval came after the annual contracting cycle, so Moderna is running a limited U.S. launch for the 2026 to 2027 influenza season.

In October, Moderna and Merck presented positive Phase 3 results in resected high-risk melanoma. Intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% (HR 0.58) compared with KEYTRUDA alone. The companies are working toward regulatory submissions.

Not every program advanced. The norovirus vaccine mRNA-1403 did not meet the statistical criteria for early success at its Phase 3 interim analysis. Moderna does not plan an additional cohort this season. Separately, Moderna and GSK settled all pending U.S. and European disputes on Oct. 28 through patent cross-licenses, with no payments owed.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that Moderna fails if COVID-era cash runs out before non-COVID products scale. This filing strengthens that case. A larger cash forecast, a fifth approved product and positive Phase 3 melanoma data all improve the odds.

The caution is in the same filing. The cash improvement partly reflects borrowing, and the balance sheet now carries $2.96 billion of convertible notes. Third-quarter growth came mainly from COVID vaccine sales. Intismeran still needs regulatory approval before any commercial launch.

What's next

Moderna holds its Analyst Day on Nov. 12. Pivotal data for propionic acidemia are expected in 2026. An abstract on mRNA-2808 is set for oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology meeting in New Orleans on Dec. 12.

Positive pivotal data would support the multi-product thesis, and a miss would weaken it. The year-end report will show whether the uncollected third-quarter sales turned into cash within the forecast range.

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