Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08, FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $732.07 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.22 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group’s conference call:

• Strong second-quarter performance: Revenue rose 15% year over year to $732.1 million, net income increased 63% to $47.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 20% to approximately $142 million. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $2.95-$3.05 billion in revenue, $168-$175 million in net income, and $550-$560 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• ICE expansion is accelerating: GEO expects its Big Horn and Rivers facilities to be activated by year-end 2026, adding approximately 2,508 beds and $165 million in annual revenue once normalized in early 2027. The company also has roughly 4,500 additional idle high-security beds that could generate more than $250 million in annual revenue if reactivated.
• The ISAP electronic-monitoring program is seeing a favorable mix shift toward higher-priced GPS ankle monitors and case management, helping offset lower contract pricing. GPS-monitored participants increased to approximately 54,000 from 17,000 in early 2025, while management said future policy changes could drive additional enrollment.
• GEO is exploring the potential sale of several turnkey facilities to ICE while retaining long-term support-services contracts. Management believes transactions could be valued similarly to recent industry deals and plans to use any proceeds for debt reduction, share repurchases, and other shareholder-focused uses.
• The Graceville and Bay managed-only Florida contracts, worth approximately $100 million in combined annual revenue, were delayed to July 1, 2027 because of unresolved budgetary issues. GEO also received no second-quarter revenue from its skip-tracing contract, although it expects the program to begin ramping in the second half of 2026.

Geo Group Price Performance

GEO stock opened at $30.73 on Friday. Geo Group has a 52 week low of $12.51 and a 52 week high of $32.25. The company has a quick ratio of 1.75, a current ratio of 1.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. The company has a fifty day simple moving average of $29.27 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $21.72. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.11 billion, a P/E ratio of 14.50, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.66 and a beta of 0.79.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $26,000 after acquiring an additional 782 shares during the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC raised its position in Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares during the period. Militia Capital Partners LP lifted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% in the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $165,000 after purchasing an additional 3,800 shares during the last quarter. Guggenheim Capital LLC bought a new stake in shares of Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $174,000. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV boosted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 19.3% in the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $188,000 after purchasing an additional 1,882 shares during the period. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.28–$0.29 consensus range, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732.1 million, exceeding estimates. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 outlook was raised above analyst expectations: GEO now expects full-year EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0 billion–$3.1 billion. Management also projects third-quarter EPS of $0.35–$0.37, above the $0.30 consensus estimate. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: ICE expansion and analyst support are strengthening the growth narrative: GEO is targeting additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026 and outlined expected 2026 net income of $168 million–$175 million. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, implying further upside from the referenced price. GEO Outlines 2026 Net Income Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Momentum screens highlight continued price strength: Recent performance has substantially outpaced the stock’s longer-term moving average, although such technical signals do not necessarily indicate that the gains will continue. GEO Group Price Strength Analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Some quarterly guidance was weaker: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.28–$0.31 was below the $0.33 consensus estimate, creating a modest counterpoint to the otherwise favorable outlook. GEO is also facing questions from lawmakers regarding alleged violations at its Moshannon Valley facility, which could present reputational or regulatory risk. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several equities analysts recently weighed in on the stock. JonesTrading raised their target price on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Northland Securities lifted their target price on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, June 26th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.