Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its third quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.350-0.370 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.300. The company issued revenue guidance of $755.0 million-$805.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $765.1 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several research analysts have recently commented on the company. Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Northland Securities increased their target price on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, June 26th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Finally, JonesTrading increased their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $40.00.

Geo Group Trading Up 0.8%

Geo Group stock traded up $0.25 during midday trading on Friday, reaching $30.39. The stock had a trading volume of 342,023 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,109,680. Geo Group has a 52-week low of $12.51 and a 52-week high of $32.25. The company has a quick ratio of 1.75, a current ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. The firm has a market cap of $4.06 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.50, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79. The company has a fifty day moving average of $29.11 and a 200 day moving average of $21.65.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.The business had revenue of $732.07 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $721.43 million. During the same period in the previous year, the company posted $0.22 EPS. Geo Group’s revenue was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. On average, analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, ahead of the roughly $0.28–$0.29 consensus, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, topping estimates of approximately $721.4 million. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above consensus. GEO now expects 2026 EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0–$3.1 billion. Management also outlined net income guidance of $168 million–$175 million and expects additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026, supporting potential revenue growth. GEO 2026 Net Income Guidance and ICE Facility Activations
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, citing the company’s earnings performance, guidance and operational updates. JonesTrading Raises GEO Price Target
• Neutral Sentiment: Expansion activity is becoming more visible. GEO has posted hiring opportunities connected with a planned ICE detention facility in Colorado, indicating progress toward facility activation but also highlighting the company’s dependence on government contracts. GEO Hiring for Colorado ICE Facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance was below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31 versus consensus of $0.33, creating a near-term earnings concern despite stronger full-year guidance. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 was above the $0.30 consensus, making the outlook mixed. GEO Q2 Earnings Beat and Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and reputational risks remain. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, which could increase scrutiny of GEO’s detention operations and government-contract exposure. Lawmakers Question Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. grew its position in Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $26,000 after acquiring an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% in the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co increased its stake in Geo Group by 1.2% during the 3rd quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co now owns 125,217 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,627,000 after buying an additional 1,444 shares during the period. Tidal Investments LLC lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 6.6% during the 2nd quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 23,595 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $565,000 after buying an additional 1,467 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV boosted its position in Geo Group by 19.3% in the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $188,000 after buying an additional 1,882 shares during the period. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.