Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its fourth quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.280-0.310 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.330. The company issued revenue guidance of $758.0 million-$808.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Down 3.5%

NYSE GEO traded down $1.09 on Thursday, reaching $30.33. The company had a trading volume of 2,901,801 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,407,432. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a current ratio of 1.75 and a quick ratio of 1.75. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $12.51 and a 1 year high of $32.25. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $29.11 and a 200-day moving average of $21.65. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.05 billion, a PE ratio of 15.40, a P/E/G ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. The company had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $721.43 million. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.22 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. On average, equities research analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.2 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several research firms recently issued reports on GEO. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 9th. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Saturday, July 25th. Northland Securities raised their target price on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Finally, JonesTrading lifted their target price on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $40.00.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share versus the $0.29 consensus estimate, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, ahead of expectations for $721.4 million. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above analyst expectations: GEO forecast 2026 earnings of $1.27–$1.32 per share, compared with the $1.22 consensus estimate. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 also exceeds the $0.30 consensus, and the company expects $755 million–$805 million in third-quarter revenue. Geo Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved: JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and assigned a “buy” rating, implying substantial upside from the recent trading level. Benzinga Analyst Update
• Positive Sentiment: GEO is hiring for a new Colorado facility that ICE is preparing to open, signaling potential additional demand and revenue capacity for the company’s secure-facility services. GEO Group Posts Jobs for Colorado Facility
• Neutral Sentiment: The earnings call and recent performance coverage highlight GEO’s strong results and significant year-to-date stock gains, but also leave investors focused on execution, government contracts and the sustainability of elevated growth. GEO Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance disappointed: GEO projected fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31, below the $0.33 analyst consensus. This softer near-term outlook may be outweighing the second-quarter beat and stronger full-year forecast.
• Negative Sentiment: Lawmakers requested answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, creating regulatory, reputational and contract-related risks. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. raised its stake in shares of Geo Group by 4.6% in the 1st quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,213,000 after purchasing an additional 3,309 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Geo Group by 81.9% in the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares during the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association bought a new stake in Geo Group in the first quarter valued at about $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC raised its stake in Geo Group by 168.0% during the first quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $8,324,000 after buying an additional 178,622 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Invesco Ltd. raised its stake in Geo Group by 4.2% during the second quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,308,817 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $31,346,000 after buying an additional 52,623 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.