HC Wainwright Predicts BigBear.ai’s Q1 Earnings (NYSE:BBAI)

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) – Equities research analysts at HC Wainwright issued their Q1 2026 earnings estimates for BigBear.ai in a research report issued on Tuesday, March 3rd. HC Wainwright analyst S. Buck forecasts that the company will post earnings of ($0.05) per share for the quarter. HC Wainwright currently has a “Buy” rating and a $6.00 price target on the stock. The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai’s current full-year earnings is ($0.28) per share. HC Wainwright also issued estimates for BigBear.ai’s Q2 2026 earnings at ($0.05) EPS and FY2027 earnings at ($0.19) EPS.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. The firm had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 21.44%. The firm’s revenue was down 37.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted ($0.43) EPS.

Other analysts have also issued reports about the company. Wall Street Zen lowered BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Saturday, January 10th. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price target on BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday. Finally, Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Stock Performance

Shares of BBAI stock opened at $3.81 on Wednesday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a current ratio of 3.13. BigBear.ai has a one year low of $2.36 and a one year high of $9.39. The company’s 50-day simple moving average is $5.16 and its 200-day simple moving average is $5.89. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.66 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -3.81 and a beta of 3.49.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in BBAI. Root Financial Partners LLC grew its stake in BigBear.ai by 617.5% during the 4th quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC now owns 5,381 shares of the company’s stock worth $29,000 after buying an additional 4,631 shares during the last quarter. CWM LLC boosted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 237.5% during the third quarter. CWM LLC now owns 4,640 shares of the company’s stock valued at $30,000 after acquiring an additional 3,265 shares during the period. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. grew its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 150.9% during the fourth quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 5,640 shares of the company’s stock worth $30,000 after acquiring an additional 3,392 shares during the last quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. increased its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 3,355.6% in the 3rd quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. now owns 4,976 shares of the company’s stock worth $32,000 after acquiring an additional 4,832 shares during the period. Finally, HM Payson & Co. increased its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 616.9% in the 4th quarter. HM Payson & Co. now owns 7,169 shares of the company’s stock worth $39,000 after acquiring an additional 6,169 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 7.55% of the company’s stock.

Insider Transactions at BigBear.ai

In other BigBear.ai news, CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 5,000 shares of BigBear.ai stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, December 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $7.06, for a total value of $35,300.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 488,716 shares in the company, valued at $3,450,334.96. The trade was a 1.01% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. 0.54% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

More BigBear.ai News

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Balance-sheet repair — management reported a large reduction in debt and a much stronger liquidity/cash position, which reduces near-term financing risk and supports future investment. BigBear.ai Resets Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions — recent deals (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add FedRAMP access and recurring revenue streams tied to federal and border security use cases, improving the company’s addressable market and revenue quality. MarketBeat coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS beat but revenue miss — BigBear.ai reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, modestly beating EPS estimates, but revenue of $27.3M missed consensus. That EPS beat tempers concern but the revenue miss is the larger signal for growth. Zacks: Q4 results
• Neutral Sentiment: Longer-term targets and presentation — management outlined a 17% revenue growth target and an investor presentation highlighting strategic focus areas; useful for medium-term thesis but not immediately accretive. Seeking Alpha: Growth target
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue guidance came in light — FY2026 revenue guidance of $135.0M–$165.0M was below the roughly $167.7M consensus, signaling slower near-term topline recovery and likely driving downside pressure. Business Wire: Q4 results & guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst reactions trimmed — Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $5 (now Neutral) and HC Wainwright reduced its target to $6 (still Buy), signaling tempered upside and contributing to selling pressure. Benzinga: analyst moves
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue decline and program softness — management attributed Q4 revenue weakness to lower volume on certain military programs, highlighting sensitivity to defense customer activity and near-term revenue volatility. Seeking Alpha: revenue miss

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.