Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.02 EPS

Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) issued its earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $0.09 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.11 by ($0.02), FiscalAI reports. Certara had a return on equity of 5.18% and a net margin of 2.62%.The firm had revenue of $103.65 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $103.23 million. During the same period last year, the business posted $0.15 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year. Certara updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.440-0.480 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Certara’s conference call:

• New CEO and strategic plan: Jon Resnick (onboard Jan 1) laid out three priorities — focused portfolio, customer-centric go-to-market, and operational discipline — and says Certara can reach double-digit growth over time while already identifying roughly $10M of 2026 cost avoidance.
• Conservative 2026 guidance: Management guides to only flat to +4% revenue growth for 2026, adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%–32%, and adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.48, with Q1 expected at the low end of the range.
• Mixed 2025 results but near-term execution risks: full-year revenue was $418.8M (+9%), software revenue was $183.3M (+18% reported; organic +7%), yet Q4 software bookings fell 6% and management cited conversion and Tier 1/2 execution weakness.
• Services and MIDD momentum: technology-driven services bookings rose 17% in Q4 and MIDD services showed double-digit bookings growth, with December customer commitments cited as a positive discretionary-spend indicator.
• Regulatory writing under strategic review and capital allocation: the regulatory writing & operations business is in the final stages of a strategic review (outcome not yet disclosed) while the company plans to continue using share repurchases as a capital-allocation tool.

Certara Stock Up 3.2%

Shares of NASDAQ CERT opened at $6.80 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a quick ratio of 2.09 and a current ratio of 2.09. Certara has a 1 year low of $6.04 and a 1 year high of $15.38. The stock’s 50-day simple moving average is $8.40 and its 200-day simple moving average is $9.92. The firm has a market cap of $1.08 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.14 and a beta of 1.47.

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several research firms have recently weighed in on CERT. BMO Capital Markets started coverage on Certara in a research note on Thursday, November 13th. They issued a “market perform” rating and a $9.00 price objective on the stock. Craig Hallum lowered shares of Certara from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating and set a $10.00 price objective for the company. in a research report on Friday. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Certara from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Sunday, February 15th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “sell (d+)” rating on shares of Certara in a report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Stephens decreased their target price on Certara from $15.00 to $12.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, December 12th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, six have given a Buy rating, six have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $11.60.

Key Headlines Impacting Certara

Here are the key news stories impacting Certara this week:

• Positive Sentiment: FY-2025 revenue and margin strength — Certara reported FY-2025 revenue of $418.8M (+9%) and adjusted EBITDA of $134.5M (+10%), with a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin near the high end (32%), which supports profitability expectations going forward. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Software momentum — Q4 software revenue grew ~10% year-over-year and total bookings for Q4 rose ~7% (services bookings +17%), indicating ongoing demand for Certara’s biosimulation and software offerings that can drive recurring revenue. Certara, Inc. Reports FY 2025 Financial Results (Quiver)
• Neutral Sentiment: Management change and cost actions — New CEO Jon Resnick (effective Jan. 1, 2026) announced a strategic overhaul and flagged initiatives (including a ~$10M cost-avoidance target) to sharpen commercial execution; these could improve long-term growth but introduce transitional risk near-term. Certara outlines flat to 4% 2026 revenue growth as new CEO signals operational overhaul
• Neutral Sentiment: Balance sheet / cash flow — Cash and equivalents rose to ~$189M and management expects adjusted EBITDA margin of ~30–32% in 2026, which supports liquidity and margin resilience during the transition. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS miss and weaker adjusted EPS — Q4 adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.09 vs. consensus ~ $0.11 (and adjusted EPS fell YoY from $0.15), a near-term earnings disappointment that likely pressured the stock. Earnings Breakdown: Certara Q4 (Benzinga)
• Negative Sentiment: FY-2026 revenue guide misses Street — Management guided 2026 revenue growth of 0–4% (range implies revenue below consensus ~$446.5M), signaling a slowdown vs. FY-2025 and prompting analyst re‑estimates. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Higher operating costs and GAAP loss — Q4 operating expenses rose (employee and transaction costs), producing a GAAP net loss of $5.9M and lower adjusted net income versus prior-year, increasing near-term execution risk. Certara, Inc. (CERT) Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates (Zacks)

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Certara

A number of institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in CERT. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. boosted its stake in shares of Certara by 2,733.3% during the 4th quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,975 shares of the company’s stock valued at $26,000 after buying an additional 2,870 shares during the last quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. boosted its stake in Certara by 50.7% during the 2nd quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. now owns 3,491 shares of the company’s stock valued at $41,000 after acquiring an additional 1,175 shares during the last quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC grew its holdings in Certara by 499.5% during the 2nd quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC now owns 5,917 shares of the company’s stock worth $69,000 after acquiring an additional 4,930 shares in the last quarter. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board bought a new stake in shares of Certara in the 2nd quarter worth about $83,000. Finally, Engineers Gate Manager LP bought a new stake in shares of Certara in the 4th quarter worth about $92,000. 73.96% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

About Certara

Certara is a biosimulation software and services company that partners with pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device developers to accelerate drug discovery, development and regulatory approval. The company’s platform integrates quantitative pharmacology, real-world evidence, artificial intelligence and machine learning to model and simulate drug behavior across a range of therapeutic areas and patient populations. By applying these mechanistic and data-driven approaches, Certara helps its clients predict clinical outcomes, optimize dosing strategies and streamline decision-making throughout the product lifecycle.

The company’s offerings are divided into software tools and consulting services.