NiSource (NYSE:NI) executives emphasized customer affordability, disciplined capital deployment, and expanding large-load opportunities while reporting higher fourth-quarter and full-year adjusted earnings and reaffirming 2026 guidance during the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.
Fourth-quarter results and full-year performance
NiSource reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $0.51 per share, up from $0.49 in the year-ago period. For full-year 2025, the company posted adjusted EPS of $1.90, compared with $1.75 in 2024.
The company also highlighted balance sheet performance. NiSource reported FFO to debt of 16.1% for 2025, which it said exceeded its targeted range and improved by 150 basis points. The company attributed the result to internally generated cash flows from capital execution, equity issuance through its at-the-market program, junior subordinated note issuance, and higher-than-typical cash flow receipts tied to above-normal weather conditions. Management noted weather effects contributed about 70 basis points to full-year FFO to debt, with a portion expected to be passed back to customers in 2026 through regulatory mechanisms.
Guidance reaffirmed; dividend increased
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07. CFO Shawn Anderson said the range reflects roughly 8% year-over-year growth versus 2025 and includes a base business outlook of $2.01 to $2.05 plus an expected $0.01 to $0.02 contribution from GenCo as it begins to ramp in 2026.
Management also reiterated its longer-term framework, citing an expected 8% to 9% compound annual growth rate through 2033 supported by a 9% to 11% consolidated rate base CAGR through 2033. The company said its plan assumes modest customer growth of less than 1% across classes and conservative financing assumptions through 2030, along with continued use of capital trackers in most jurisdictions.
On shareholder returns, the company said its board approved a 7.1% dividend increase for 2026 compared to 2025, aligning dividend growth with earnings growth and maintaining a targeted payout ratio of 55% to 65%.
Amazon agreement and data center pipeline
CEO Lloyd Yates highlighted NiSource’s agreement with Amazon, referencing the company’s special contract filing with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC). NiSource said it anticipates $1 billion will flow back to NIPSCO customers, which management described as an estimated $7 to $9 per customer per month upon Amazon’s full ramp. The company said IURC approval of the special contract remains pending, with a decision expected in the first half of the year.
Yates also cited a local milestone for the project, stating that on February 2 a zoning application for five parcels was approved by the Jasper County Commissioners. The next major milestones, he said, include IURC approval and the start of civil site work.
Anderson described the company’s broader capital plan as including $21 billion of base utility investment over the next five years focused on grid modernization, gas infrastructure replacement, safety, and reliability. Management said the Amazon project at GenCo represents $6 billion to $7 billion of capital investment through 2032, with most within the five-year planning window, and that the contract is designed to align cash inflows with customer ramp rate while incorporating protections intended to support credit quality and financial flexibility.
Beyond the base plan, NiSource said it maintains about $2 billion of upside capital investments supporting its utility operations, and it continues to evaluate additional opportunities such as long-range transmission planning and other projects it may later incorporate into base capital spending.
On customer demand, the company said its data center pipeline remained “robust.” Management said it is engaged in strategic negotiations for 1 gigawatt to 3 gigawatts of new capacity and has identified up to 3 gigawatts of additional developing opportunities.
Regulatory updates and customer affordability initiatives
NiSource executives repeatedly tied investment plans to affordability and regulatory mechanisms. Yates said the company has used “proven regulatory and rate design tools” to mitigate bill impacts, including Pennsylvania’s weather normalization mechanism and a higher fixed charge structure negotiated in its last rate case, as well as Ohio’s fixed-variable rate design.
The company also said it leveraged low-cost gas from storage assets during a severe winter storm, serving about 75% of total load at below-market prices to help limit customer bill impacts. Management reiterated an objective to keep operations and maintenance costs flat across the platform and said it is targeting average annual bill increases of less than 5% over the planned horizon while investing about $28 billion over the next five years to modernize and maintain infrastructure.
On rate cases, management said it currently has no pending rate cases. In response to a question about Pennsylvania, Yates noted the company concluded a rate case in December, which included a $55 million revenue increase and a 10% ROE. He said conversations with commissioners included encouragement to continue pipe replacement while also not filing rate cases too frequently, adding that the company is working through possible regulatory solutions but did not provide details. Regarding a potential NIPSCO gas rate case, management said it had not yet determined whether to file.
In Ohio, Anderson addressed the significance of newly enacted utility legislation, saying the company is working on optimization to reduce regulatory lag and improve the certainty of capital recovery timelines. He added NiSource has not yet incorporated potential upside from economic development or large-load customer additions into the Columbia Gas of Ohio forecast but said it could be incorporated later.
In Indiana, Yates said the company supports House Bill 1002, describing components such as multi-year rate plans and performance-based elements, mandatory budget billing with an opt-out, and low-income plan funding. He said the company believes the bill would be beneficial but noted uncertainty around legislative timing.
Operations, safety, and Schahfer coal plant extension
NiSource said safety remained its top priority and pointed to certifications including ISO 55001 and API 1173. Management highlighted operational activity in 2025 such as installing more than 0.545 million smart meters and surveying more than 41,000 miles of pipeline using advanced mobile leak detection technology, both of which it said exceeded targets. The company also referenced use of AI and analytics, expansions of its work management intelligence system, and “Project Apollo” cost-savings efforts.
On generation, Yates discussed the Schahfer coal plant after a federal order directed continued operations beyond its planned retirement. He said NiSource would comply with the order and file a proposed cost recovery schedule with FERC in line with Department of Energy-mandated extensions. Yates added that the company has flexibility in its capital plan to accommodate Schahfer operations and expects additional orders approximately every 90 days under the current process, while noting longer-term environmental constraints could affect how long the plant can operate, subject to potential changes in EPA regulations.
Finally, Anderson said NiSource expects GenCo to be broken out as its own segment as it becomes more material, and anticipated providing incremental disclosure in 2026 fiscal results, though he did not specify timing within the year.
About NiSource (NYSE:NI)
NiSource, Inc (NYSE: NI) is a publicly traded energy holding company headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana, that primarily owns and operates regulated local gas and electric utilities in the United States. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company delivers natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers and provides the associated distribution and transmission services that keep local energy systems functioning.
The company’s core activities include natural gas distribution, electric transmission and distribution, system operations, maintenance and emergency response.
