American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) released its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.38 by ($0.22), Zacks reports. The firm had revenue of $14 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $14.12 billion. American Airlines Group had a negative return on equity of 5.90% and a net margin of 0.20%.The business’s revenue was up 2.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned $0.86 EPS. American Airlines Group updated its Q1 2026 guidance to -0.500–0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance to 1.700-2.700 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from American Airlines Group’s conference call:

• The company reported Winter Storm Fern as the largest weather-related operational disruption in its history with 9,000+ cancellations, estimating a $150–$200M Q1 revenue hit and at least two more days of elevated cancellations, which widened Q1 guidance uncertainty.
• Balance sheet progress accelerated — American reduced total debt by $2.1B in 2025 to $36.5B, expects to be below $35B in 2026, and forecasts >$2B of free cash flow and the lowest net debt since 2014.
• Premium demand and product investments gained traction — premium unit revenue outpaced main cabin by seven points in Q4, and the company is expanding premium offerings (including the Flagship Suite, A321XLR and 787‑9P deliveries, and 777 retrofits) with premium seat growth set to outpace main cabin through the decade.
• Strategic loyalty monetization — the new 10‑year co‑brand card partnership with Citi began Jan 1, the Barclays-to‑Citi channel transition is complete, and management expects material, multi‑year growth in card acquisitions and spend.
• 2026 guidance reflects a mid‑single‑digit capacity plan, CASM ex fuel up low single digits, full‑year adjusted EPS of $1.70–$2.70 (Q1 loss $0.10–$0.50), and $4–$4.5B CapEx, with management noting January bookings are strong but not fully baked into the full‑year outlook.

American Airlines Group Stock Performance

AAL opened at $13.44 on Thursday. The stock’s 50 day moving average price is $14.94 and its 200-day moving average price is $13.31. American Airlines Group has a one year low of $8.50 and a one year high of $17.40. The stock has a market cap of $8.87 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.63, a P/E/G ratio of 0.46 and a beta of 1.23.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On American Airlines Group

A number of large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. XTX Topco Ltd increased its stake in American Airlines Group by 126.6% in the third quarter. XTX Topco Ltd now owns 75,068 shares of the airline’s stock worth $844,000 after purchasing an additional 41,944 shares during the period. United Capital Financial Advisors LLC grew its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 26.1% in the third quarter. United Capital Financial Advisors LLC now owns 13,247 shares of the airline’s stock worth $149,000 after purchasing an additional 2,739 shares during the last quarter. Voleon Capital Management LP bought a new position in shares of American Airlines Group in the third quarter worth about $1,537,000. Voloridge Investment Management LLC increased its stake in American Airlines Group by 19.5% in the 3rd quarter. Voloridge Investment Management LLC now owns 3,729,689 shares of the airline’s stock worth $41,922,000 after buying an additional 609,457 shares during the period. Finally, Quantessence Capital LLC bought a new stake in American Airlines Group during the 3rd quarter valued at about $145,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 52.44% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting American Airlines Group

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company outlook and balance-sheet improvements — American issued FY‑2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.70–$2.70, expects >$2B free cash flow, and reduced debt by ~$2.1B in 2025, which supports longer‑term earnings and deleveraging. American Airlines Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst upgrade — JPMorgan raised its price target to $22 and moved to an “overweight” stance, implying significant upside versus current levels and likely providing near‑term buying interest. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Record revenue but compressed profits — American reported record Q4 and full‑year revenue (Q4: $14.0B; FY: $54.6B), showing demand strength especially in premium/corporate channels, but margins and net income were materially lower year‑over‑year. Investors will weigh top‑line momentum against weak profitability. American Airlines forecasts 2026 profit above estimates on strong premium demand
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst/valuation commentary — value‑oriented research (Zacks, others) highlights AAL as a potential value play given recent weakness and a median analyst target near $17, keeping the name on watch lists. Here’s Why American Airlines (AAL) is a Strong Value Stock
• Negative Sentiment: Earnings miss and near‑term pain — Q4 EPS of $0.16 missed consensus (~$0.38) and the company warned Q1 will see an adjusted loss, pressuring sentiment and short‑term valuation. American Airlines (AAL) Lags Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: Operational disruptions — Winter Storm Fern caused the largest weather‑related disruption in company history (9,000+ cancellations); the quarter incorporated a ~$150–$200M estimated impact to Q1 and higher unit costs, which weigh on near‑term cash flow and reliability perceptions. American Airlines is offering some flight attendants double pay as it scrambles to get back to normal
• Negative Sentiment: Competitive and market risks — United’s expansion at O’Hare and mixed unit‑revenue trends domestically create competitive pressure that could limit margin recovery if pricing softens. United Airlines ramps up Chicago flights as O’Hare rivalry with American Airlines heats up
• Neutral Sentiment: Short interest / data noise — recent short‑interest entries in the feed appear to be reporting errors (zeros/NaN) and are not meaningful for days‑to‑cover at this time.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several equities research analysts recently weighed in on the stock. Citigroup boosted their price target on shares of American Airlines Group from $19.00 to $21.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday, January 7th. BMO Capital Markets restated a “market perform” rating and issued a $17.00 target price on shares of American Airlines Group in a report on Wednesday. Wells Fargo & Company assumed coverage on shares of American Airlines Group in a research report on Thursday, December 18th. They set an “equal weight” rating and a $17.00 target price on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group lifted their price target on American Airlines Group from $12.00 to $13.00 and gave the stock a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, October 1st. Finally, Susquehanna raised American Airlines Group from a “neutral” rating to a “positive” rating and raised their price objective for the company from $14.00 to $20.00 in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $17.75.

American Airlines Group Company Profile

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.