Erste Group Bank Forecasts Lower Earnings for McDonald’s

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) – Equities research analysts at Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2027 EPS estimates for McDonald’s in a research note issued on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now expects that the fast-food giant will post earnings per share of $13.78 for the year, down from their prior estimate of $13.80. The consensus estimate for McDonald’s’ current full-year earnings is $12.84 per share.

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The fast-food giant reported $3.38 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.32 by $0.06. McDonald’s had a net margin of 31.72% and a negative return on equity of 572.06%. The firm had revenue of $7.10 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $7.13 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $3.19 EPS. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 3.7% compared to the same quarter last year.

Several other research firms also recently issued reports on MCD. Gordon Haskett dropped their target price on McDonald’s from $315.00 to $285.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, September 24th. Needham & Company LLC reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of McDonald’s in a research note on Monday, September 21st. Loop Capital dropped their price objective on McDonald’s from $301.00 to $273.00 and set a “hold” rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, August 5th. HC Wainwright set a $250.00 target price on McDonald’s in a report on Friday, September 25th. Finally, UBS Group reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of McDonald’s in a report on Monday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-two have given a Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $295.64.

McDonald’s Trading Up 2.5%

McDonald’s stock opened at $252.50 on Friday. The business’s 50 day simple moving average is $249.91 and its 200 day simple moving average is $270.11. McDonald’s has a 12 month low of $229.20 and a 12 month high of $341.75. The company has a market cap of $178.68 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.51, a PEG ratio of 2.76 and a beta of 0.44.

Institutional Trading of McDonald’s

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. State Street Corp grew its stake in McDonald’s by 1.8% in the second quarter. State Street Corp now owns 36,080,505 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock worth $9,752,921,000 after purchasing an additional 646,675 shares during the period. Bank of New York Mellon Corp purchased a new stake in shares of McDonald’s in the 2nd quarter worth about $1,359,276,000. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership increased its stake in shares of McDonald’s by 17.2% in the 1st quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership now owns 3,637,785 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock worth $1,130,587,000 after acquiring an additional 533,448 shares in the last quarter. Diamant Asset Management Inc. lifted its position in McDonald’s by 30,979.0% during the 1st quarter. Diamant Asset Management Inc. now owns 2,596,340 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock valued at $806,917,000 after acquiring an additional 2,587,986 shares during the period. Finally, Swiss National Bank boosted its stake in McDonald’s by 6.9% during the first quarter. Swiss National Bank now owns 2,089,980 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock worth $649,545,000 after acquiring an additional 134,480 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 70.29% of the company’s stock.

McDonald’s Increases Dividend

The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, December 15th. Investors of record on Tuesday, December 1st will be issued a dividend of $1.93 per share. The ex-dividend date is Tuesday, December 1st. This represents a $7.72 annualized dividend and a yield of 3.1%. This is a boost from McDonald’s’s previous quarterly dividend of $1.86. McDonald’s’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 60.44%.

Key Headlines Impacting McDonald’s

Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald’s this week:

• Positive Sentiment: McDonald’s has fallen roughly 28% from its 52-week high and now offers a dividend yield near 3%–3.2%, making the stock more attractive to value and income investors. The company’s latest dividend increase also reinforces its status as a “Dividend King.” McDonald’s Has Lost a Fifth of Its Value in 2026
• Positive Sentiment: Analysts expect McDonald’s third-quarter earnings to rise by a single-digit percentage. Investors are watching whether chicken launches, limited-time offers, the returning McRib and seasonal promotions can revive U.S. comparable sales. McDonald’s Q3 2026 Earnings: What to Expect
• Positive Sentiment: New marketing initiatives, including a celebrity-led chef’s table experience and limited-time menu offerings, could generate publicity and incremental demand, although their financial impact is likely limited. McDonald’s Chef’s Table Experience
• Neutral Sentiment: The stock is being viewed as a potential bargain for patient investors, but commentary remains divided because the valuation discount reflects challenges that may persist. Is McDonald’s Stock a Real Bargain?
• Negative Sentiment: Weak customer traffic and consumer sensitivity to prices are pressuring U.S. comparable sales. Taco Bell’s new $2 offering highlights the intense value competition McDonald’s faces. Taco Bell Rolls Out $2 Item
• Negative Sentiment: McDonald’s is facing a federal lawsuit alleging AI-assisted price fixing; the company disputes the allegations and says the complaint contains inaccuracies. Any legal or reputational fallout could weigh on sentiment. McDonald’s AI-Fueled Price-Fixing Lawsuit

About McDonald’s

McDonald’s Corporation is a global quick-service restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand. Its restaurants serve a menu that includes hamburgers, cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches, French fries, breakfast items, desserts, salads, beverages and coffee. Offerings vary by market, and many locations provide drive-thru service, delivery and digital ordering through the McDonald’s mobile app.

The company operates through a heavily franchised business model, with restaurants owned and operated by independent franchisees, affiliates and the company itself.