Sidoti Has Bullish Forecast for Geo Group Q2 Earnings

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Stock analysts at Sidoti raised their Q2 2026 earnings estimates for shares of Geo Group in a research note issued on Thursday, May 7th. Sidoti analyst B. Mccarthy now expects that the real estate investment trust will earn $0.28 per share for the quarter, up from their prior estimate of $0.26. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $1.18 per share. Sidoti also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q4 2026 earnings at $0.32 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.18 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $0.38 EPS and Q4 2027 earnings at $0.40 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.19 by $0.10. The company had revenue of $705.21 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $688.89 million. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 16.6% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.14 EPS. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Several other research analysts have also weighed in on GEO. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Friday, March 27th. JonesTrading cut their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, March 20th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, February 28th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Trading Down 4.5%

Shares of GEO stock opened at $21.21 on Friday. The firm has a market cap of $2.81 billion, a P/E ratio of 10.76 and a beta of 0.82. Geo Group has a 1-year low of $12.51 and a 1-year high of $27.90. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a current ratio of 1.75 and a quick ratio of 2.01. The firm’s 50-day simple moving average is $17.06 and its 200-day simple moving average is $16.47.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position in Geo Group by 0.7% during the 4th quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 14,894,927 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $240,106,000 after purchasing an additional 98,742 shares in the last quarter. Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd acquired a new stake in Geo Group in the third quarter valued at approximately $115,664,000. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC grew its position in Geo Group by 32.7% in the third quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 4,974,772 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $101,933,000 after acquiring an additional 1,224,847 shares in the last quarter. State Street Corp grew its position in Geo Group by 2.6% in the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 4,961,725 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $79,983,000 after acquiring an additional 126,609 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Continental General Insurance Co. grew its position in Geo Group by 10.1% in the fourth quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. now owns 4,684,474 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $75,514,000 after acquiring an additional 430,000 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Insider Transactions at Geo Group

In related news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, March 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total transaction of $101,086.92. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 27,062 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $412,424.88. This represents a 19.69% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Company insiders own 4.98% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted EPS of $0.29 vs. the consensus ~$0.19 and revenue of $705M (up ~16.6% YoY). Management posted an optimistic full‑year 2026 EPS range of $1.15–$1.25 and lifted revenue guidance. This is the primary driver of the stock’s rally. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Street reaction and volume: Analysts and coverage pieces highlighted the earnings beat and raised outlook, which triggered heavy buying and increased volume as short‑term momentum gathered. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management flagged potential asset transactions: Management discussed possible sales of certain ICE facilities while reiterating 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $2.95B–$3.1B — a development that could be accretive but adds near‑term execution/strategic uncertainty. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Operational and reputational risks from detention facilities: Local reports and investigations (e.g., a UW report on a Washington ICE facility) describe alleged abuses and lowered standards, raising regulatory, litigation and contract‑risk concerns for GEO. Such coverage can pressure valuation and contract renewals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and political noise: Management’s comments about lawsuits over detention conditions and media coverage of legal challenges increase headline risk; activists and some customers of related institutions have reacted (e.g., bank customer pullbacks), which can affect public contracts and financing sentiment. Read More. • Read More.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.