BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Issues Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.04 EPS

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) posted its quarterly earnings results on Monday. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.05) by $0.04, FiscalAI reports. The firm had revenue of $27.30 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 21.44%. The company’s quarterly revenue was down 37.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted ($0.43) earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from BigBear.ai’s conference call:

• As of year-end 2025 BigBear.ai says it is in the strongest financial position in company history after raising $693 million from ATM/warrant activity, significantly reducing debt, achieving record liquidity, and settling the 2029 notes to save about $9 million of annual interest.
• The company completed two strategic acquisitions—Ask Sage (a model-agnostic, secure generative-AI/agent platform with an edge “carry-on” offering) and CargoSeer (AI cargo inspection)—broadening its capabilities across national security and travel & trade markets.
• Operational results weakened in Q4 with revenue of $27.3 million (down $16.5M YoY), gross margin falling to 20.4%, and adjusted EBITDA of −$10.3 million, driven by lower Army program volume and higher SG&A and R&D spend.
• Management issued FY2026 revenue guidance of $135–$165 million (~17% growth YoY) reflecting acquisition contribution and international expansion (UAE partnerships, Abu Dhabi Ports), though it withheld adjusted EBITDA guidance while investing to integrate acquisitions and scale.

BigBear.ai Price Performance

BigBear.ai stock opened at $3.81 on Wednesday. The firm has a market cap of $1.66 billion, a P/E ratio of -3.81 and a beta of 3.49. BigBear.ai has a 52 week low of $2.36 and a 52 week high of $9.39. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a current ratio of 3.13. The business’s fifty day moving average is $5.16 and its two-hundred day moving average is $5.89.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other BigBear.ai news, CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 5,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Thursday, December 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $7.06, for a total value of $35,300.00. Following the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 488,716 shares in the company, valued at approximately $3,450,334.96. This trade represents a 1.01% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Corporate insiders own 0.54% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On BigBear.ai

A number of institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in BBAI. Invesco Ltd. increased its stake in shares of BigBear.ai by 56.5% in the 4th quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 250,973 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,355,000 after purchasing an additional 90,612 shares during the last quarter. State of Tennessee Department of Treasury acquired a new position in shares of BigBear.ai during the 4th quarter valued at $149,000. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in BigBear.ai by 3.4% in the fourth quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 124,239 shares of the company’s stock worth $671,000 after acquiring an additional 4,073 shares in the last quarter. VARCOV Co. bought a new stake in BigBear.ai during the 4th quarter valued at $240,000. Finally, SummitTX Capital L.P. increased its holdings in BigBear.ai by 322.9% during the 4th quarter. SummitTX Capital L.P. now owns 45,058 shares of the company’s stock worth $243,000 after purchasing an additional 34,404 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 7.55% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of equities analysts have recently issued reports on BBAI shares. Cantor Fitzgerald dropped their target price on BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday. Wall Street Zen cut BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Saturday, January 10th. HC Wainwright dropped their price objective on BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday. Finally, Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, BigBear.ai has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $5.00.

Key Headlines Impacting BigBear.ai

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 EPS beat — BigBear.ai reported ($0.01) EPS vs. consensus ($0.05), surprising to the upside and helping shares rally after the print. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Balance-sheet repair and strategic M&A — The company cut debt dramatically, strengthened liquidity and closed acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) that add recurring revenue and federal/FedRAMP access — a constructive long‑term catalyst. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Near-term market reaction — Several outlets noted the stock rose after earnings (better‑than‑expected EPS) as traders parsed the mixed print. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst coverage: HC Wainwright keeps a Buy rating and $6 target while issuing updated near‑term and FY2027 EPS estimates (Q1/Q2 2026 at ($0.05); FY2027 ($0.19)). Those estimates reflect ongoing losses but offer an upside target that could support sentiment if execution improves. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue miss — Q4 revenue was $27.3M vs. ~ $33.3M consensus and declined ~37.7% year‑over‑year, a clear negative that undercuts the EPS beat and raises questions about topline recovery. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Below‑consensus 2026 revenue guidance — Management issued 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $135M–$165M, under the Street’s ~$167.7M consensus, creating downward pressure on near‑term expectations. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst trims and mixed ratings — Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $5 and moved to Neutral; HC Wainwright trimmed its target to $6 (still Buy). Analyst cuts and thin coverage increase volatility and leave upside dependent on execution. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Defense program tempo impact — Coverage flagged that lower military program volumes contributed to the revenue shortfall, implying revenue recovery may depend on timing of defense contract activity. Read More.

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.