Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 0.440-0.480 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.470. The company issued revenue guidance of $418.8 million-$435.6 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $446.5 million.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of brokerages have recently issued reports on CERT. Barclays lowered their price target on shares of Certara from $14.00 to $13.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a report on Monday, December 15th. KeyCorp lowered their target price on shares of Certara from $13.00 to $12.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, January 8th. Leerink Partners restated an “outperform” rating and set a $10.00 price target on shares of Certara in a research report on Thursday. TD Cowen reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of Certara in a report on Thursday. Finally, Morgan Stanley lowered their price objective on Certara from $16.00 to $12.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, December 18th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seven have issued a Buy rating, five have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $12.20.

Certara Stock Performance

Certara stock opened at $6.80 on Friday. Certara has a fifty-two week low of $6.04 and a fifty-two week high of $15.38. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a quick ratio of 2.09 and a current ratio of 2.09. The stock has a market cap of $1.08 billion, a P/E ratio of 97.14 and a beta of 1.47. The firm’s fifty day moving average price is $8.40 and its 200-day moving average price is $9.92.

Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) last released its earnings results on Thursday, February 26th. The company reported $0.09 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.11 by ($0.02). Certara had a net margin of 2.62% and a return on equity of 5.18%. The firm had revenue of $103.65 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $103.23 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company earned $0.15 EPS. The firm’s revenue was up 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year. Certara has set its FY 2026 guidance at 0.440-0.480 EPS. On average, equities research analysts expect that Certara will post 0.28 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Certara News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Certara this week:

• Positive Sentiment: FY-2025 revenue and margin strength — Certara reported FY-2025 revenue of $418.8M (+9%) and adjusted EBITDA of $134.5M (+10%), with a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin near the high end (32%), which supports profitability expectations going forward. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Software momentum — Q4 software revenue grew ~10% year-over-year and total bookings for Q4 rose ~7% (services bookings +17%), indicating ongoing demand for Certara’s biosimulation and software offerings that can drive recurring revenue. Certara, Inc. Reports FY 2025 Financial Results (Quiver)
• Neutral Sentiment: Management change and cost actions — New CEO Jon Resnick (effective Jan. 1, 2026) announced a strategic overhaul and flagged initiatives (including a ~$10M cost-avoidance target) to sharpen commercial execution; these could improve long-term growth but introduce transitional risk near-term. Certara outlines flat to 4% 2026 revenue growth as new CEO signals operational overhaul
• Neutral Sentiment: Balance sheet / cash flow — Cash and equivalents rose to ~$189M and management expects adjusted EBITDA margin of ~30–32% in 2026, which supports liquidity and margin resilience during the transition. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS miss and weaker adjusted EPS — Q4 adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.09 vs. consensus ~ $0.11 (and adjusted EPS fell YoY from $0.15), a near-term earnings disappointment that likely pressured the stock. Earnings Breakdown: Certara Q4 (Benzinga)
• Negative Sentiment: FY-2026 revenue guide misses Street — Management guided 2026 revenue growth of 0–4% (range implies revenue below consensus ~$446.5M), signaling a slowdown vs. FY-2025 and prompting analyst re‑estimates. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Higher operating costs and GAAP loss — Q4 operating expenses rose (employee and transaction costs), producing a GAAP net loss of $5.9M and lower adjusted net income versus prior-year, increasing near-term execution risk. Certara, Inc. (CERT) Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates (Zacks)

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. lifted its holdings in shares of Certara by 2,733.3% in the 4th quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,975 shares of the company’s stock worth $26,000 after acquiring an additional 2,870 shares during the last quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. raised its position in Certara by 50.7% in the 2nd quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. now owns 3,491 shares of the company’s stock worth $41,000 after purchasing an additional 1,175 shares during the period. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC lifted its stake in Certara by 499.5% in the second quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC now owns 5,917 shares of the company’s stock worth $69,000 after purchasing an additional 4,930 shares during the last quarter. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board bought a new stake in Certara in the second quarter worth $83,000. Finally, Engineers Gate Manager LP purchased a new stake in Certara during the fourth quarter valued at about $92,000. 73.96% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Certara

Certara is a biosimulation software and services company that partners with pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device developers to accelerate drug discovery, development and regulatory approval. The company’s platform integrates quantitative pharmacology, real-world evidence, artificial intelligence and machine learning to model and simulate drug behavior across a range of therapeutic areas and patient populations. By applying these mechanistic and data-driven approaches, Certara helps its clients predict clinical outcomes, optimize dosing strategies and streamline decision-making throughout the product lifecycle.

The company’s offerings are divided into software tools and consulting services.