Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) Releases Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.11 EPS

Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) issued its earnings results on Wednesday. The company reported $0.34 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.45 by ($0.11), FiscalAI reports. Smurfit Westrock had a net margin of 2.40% and a return on equity of 6.21%. The company had revenue of $7.58 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $7.63 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted $0.28 EPS. The company’s quarterly revenue was up .5% on a year-over-year basis.

Here are the key takeaways from Smurfit Westrock’s conference call:

• Smurfit Westrock reported record-scale results with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA $1.172bn and FY Adjusted EBITDA $4.939bn, generated over $1.5bn of adjusted free cash flow for the year, reduced leverage to 2.6x, raised the dividend 5%, and received a Fitch upgrade to BBB+.
• North America faced pronounced headwinds — sharp volume declines, portfolio pruning (≈1.2bn sqm of lost business), mill downtime that cost ~$85m in Q4 (~$220m for the year), and the announced La Tuque SBS closure — pressuring near-term utilization and earnings.
• The company unveiled a bottom-up medium-term plan targeting ~$7bn Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, about $14bn adjusted free cash flow (2026–2030), ~$13bn cumulative CapEx (focused on high-return projects), ~$5bn of dividends and share buybacks beginning 2027, and a path toward ~2x leverage.
• Management is executing strategic commercial and operational changes — owner-operator model, shedding uneconomic contracts, experience centers and AI InnoTools for value-selling — and says roughly half the lost North American volume is already being replaced by higher‑quality pipeline business to drive margin recovery.

Smurfit Westrock Trading Up 10.0%

Shares of SW stock opened at $50.31 on Thursday. The company has a market capitalization of $26.28 billion, a P/E ratio of 35.18 and a beta of 1.09. The company has a current ratio of 1.48, a quick ratio of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72. The business’s 50 day moving average is $40.61 and its two-hundred day moving average is $41.21. Smurfit Westrock has a twelve month low of $32.73 and a twelve month high of $55.49.

Smurfit Westrock Increases Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, March 18th. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, February 17th will be given a dividend of $0.4523 per share. This represents a $1.81 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 3.6%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, February 17th. This is a positive change from Smurfit Westrock’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.43. Smurfit Westrock’s payout ratio is 125.87%.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Smurfit Westrock

Hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. CYBER HORNET ETFs LLC purchased a new position in Smurfit Westrock in the 2nd quarter valued at $29,000. MUFG Securities EMEA plc acquired a new stake in shares of Smurfit Westrock in the 2nd quarter worth $63,000. Zions Bancorporation National Association UT lifted its stake in shares of Smurfit Westrock by 1,276.4% in the 4th quarter. Zions Bancorporation National Association UT now owns 3,441 shares of the company’s stock worth $133,000 after acquiring an additional 3,191 shares during the period. NorthRock Partners LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Smurfit Westrock in the third quarter valued at about $222,000. Finally, Hudson Bay Capital Management LP acquired a new position in shares of Smurfit Westrock during the second quarter worth about $224,000. 83.38% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

SW has been the subject of several research analyst reports. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Smurfit Westrock from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Barclays reduced their target price on Smurfit Westrock from $63.00 to $47.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a report on Monday, November 10th. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Smurfit Westrock in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Wells Fargo & Company cut their price target on Smurfit Westrock from $50.00 to $48.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, January 6th. Finally, Citigroup reduced their price objective on Smurfit Westrock from $49.00 to $48.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. Ten analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $51.60.

Smurfit Westrock News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Smurfit Westrock this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Management outlined a 2030 target of $7 billion in EBITDA and described portfolio optimization and North America margin expansion initiatives — a concrete long-term target and operational roadmap that can justify multiple expansion and investor confidence. Smurfit Westrock outlines $7B EBITDA target by 2030 while advancing portfolio optimization and North America margin expansion
• Positive Sentiment: Company reported strong adjusted EBITDA ($1,172M for Q4) and robust operating cash flow ($1,195M) and adjusted free cash flow ($679M), and reiterated capital-allocation priorities (including dividend) — supports valuation despite EPS miss. Smurfit Westrock Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment includes continued bullish views (Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight/price target implying >20% upside) — supports investor demand after the strategic update. Smurfit Westrock (SW) Benefiting From Value Focus and Operational Accountability
• Neutral Sentiment: Company hosted a Medium-Term Investor Update and provided conference materials/slides — useful for modeling but outcome depends on execution and cadence of delivered margin gains. Smurfit Westrock Medium-Term Investor Update
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS of $0.34 missed consensus (~$0.45) and revenue ($7,580M) slightly missed estimates — headline earnings shortfall can pressure near-term sentiment. Smurfit Westrock (SW) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: Management called out North America weakness in the quarter and flagged portfolio adjustments including the planned shutdown of the La Tuque paper machine and a Quebec extrusion plant — restructuring can reduce capacity but may weigh near-term volumes and costs. Smurfit Westrock to Shut La Tuque Paper Machine and Quebec Extrusion Plant
• Negative Sentiment: Multiple outlets note the EPS/revenue miss and some analyst caution — execution risk remains between target-setting and delivering sustained margin/earnings upgrades. Smurfit Westrock Falls Short of Earnings & Sales Estimates in Q4

Smurfit Westrock Company Profile

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box.