Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its first quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided EPS guidance of 0.170-0.190 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.250. The company issued revenue guidance of $680.0 million-$690.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $692.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Geo Group Trading Down 2.0%

Shares of GEO stock opened at $15.79 on Thursday. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $14.27 and a 1 year high of $32.09. The firm has a fifty day moving average price of $16.64 and a 200-day moving average price of $18.38. The company has a market cap of $2.20 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.29 and a beta of 0.73. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a current ratio of 1.62 and a quick ratio of 1.62.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

GEO has been the subject of several analyst reports. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report on Saturday, December 13th. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Jones Trading lowered their price objective on Geo Group from $50.00 to $37.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, November 7th. Finally, Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $35.00.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Founder/leadership continuity — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George C. Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1 under an amended employment agreement, a move that should provide management continuity. The GEO Group Announces Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 results and 2026 guidance released — GEO reported fourth-quarter revenue of $707.7M and issued initial 2026 guidance; details give investors updated top-line context even though profit metrics disappointed. The GEO Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 snapshot/analyst context — brief Q4 earnings snapshot and previews summarize key metrics investors should watch (margins, contract performance, guidance assumptions). Geo Group: Q4 Earnings Snapshot
• Neutral Sentiment: Earnings previews provided market expectations and factors to watch ahead of/around the print. GEO Group (GEO) Q4 earnings report preview: What to look for
• Neutral Sentiment: Key fundamentals — market cap ~$2.2B, trailing P/E ~9.3, 50-/200-day moving averages show the stock trading below longer-term average; liquidity ratios are healthy but leverage remains meaningful (D/E ~1.02).
• Negative Sentiment: Earnings miss pressure — analysts and headlines flagged a Q4 EPS miss that overshadowed the revenue beat, which is dragging sentiment and weighing on the stock. GEO Group shares edge down as Q4 earnings miss overshadows revenue beat
• Negative Sentiment: Legal headwinds — courts denied a rehearing related to an injunction (coverage notes judicial criticism), a development that underscores ongoing litigation risk tied to contracts and operations. No rehearing for GEO Group
• Negative Sentiment: Judicial commentary — reporting indicates judges publicly decried the denial of a rehearing in GEO’s matter, highlighting legal and reputational exposure. GEO Group’s Denied Re-Hearing for Injunction Decried by Judges
• Negative Sentiment: ESG/shareholder tension — reports that GEO rejected a shareholder vote on a human-rights review raise ESG and governance concerns that can pressure institutional holders and public perception. Priests say ICE contractor GEO rejected shareholder vote on human rights review

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Several large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. grew its stake in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after buying an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its stake in Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares during the last quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP lifted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% in the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $165,000 after purchasing an additional 3,800 shares during the last quarter. CIBC Asset Management Inc purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group in the 4th quarter worth approximately $205,000. Finally, United Services Automobile Association purchased a new stake in Geo Group during the 1st quarter valued at $260,000. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.