Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The industrial products company reported $1.26 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.95 by $0.31, FiscalAI reports. Alcoa had a net margin of 8.91% and a return on equity of 15.85%. The business had revenue of $3.45 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $3.28 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $1.04 EPS. The company’s revenue was down 1.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Here are the key takeaways from Alcoa’s conference call:

• Strong Q4 operational and financial performance — record production at five smelters and one refinery, adjusted EBITDA of $546 million, adjusted EPS of $1.26, and cash of $1.6 billion.
• Material one‑time items pulled down GAAP results, including a $144 million goodwill impairment in the alumina segment and a $70 million mark‑to‑market loss on Ma’aden shares (partially offset by a $133 million tax benefit).
• The San Ciprián restart is progressing (≈65% capacity online at year‑end and on track for completion in H1 2026) but will be a near‑term drag — management expects combined smelter+refinery EBITDA loss of ~$75–100 million and free cash flow consumption of ~$100–130 million in 2026.
• Strong balance‑sheet and capital discipline — full‑year free cash flow of $594 million, ROE of 16.4%, and adjusted net debt reduced to ~$1.5 billion, with priority on remaining in that range and on debt repayment before expanding buybacks.
• Favorable aluminum market dynamics — rising LME and regional premiums (notably the Midwest), constrained supply/disruptions, and expected European CBAM uplift (management estimates ~$10/ton net benefit) should support pricing into 2026.

Alcoa Price Performance

Shares of NYSE AA opened at $63.31 on Friday. The company has a 50 day simple moving average of $50.45 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $39.13. Alcoa has a fifty-two week low of $21.53 and a fifty-two week high of $66.95. The company has a market capitalization of $16.39 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.62, a P/E/G ratio of 0.26 and a beta of 1.95. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, a quick ratio of 0.91 and a current ratio of 1.56.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Alcoa

Several hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. NewEdge Advisors LLC raised its position in shares of Alcoa by 1,098.0% in the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 11,704 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $357,000 after purchasing an additional 10,727 shares during the last quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC increased its stake in Alcoa by 0.7% during the 1st quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 646,609 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $19,722,000 after purchasing an additional 4,624 shares in the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. raised its holdings in Alcoa by 1.9% in the second quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 640,528 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $18,902,000 after buying an additional 12,008 shares during the last quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC raised its holdings in Alcoa by 173.8% in the second quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 2,040 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $60,000 after buying an additional 1,295 shares during the last quarter. Finally, First Trust Advisors LP lifted its stake in shares of Alcoa by 320.1% in the second quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 269,982 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $7,967,000 after buying an additional 205,717 shares in the last quarter.

Trending Headlines about Alcoa

Here are the key news stories impacting Alcoa this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 beat and strong headline results — Alcoa reported Q4 EPS of $1.26 vs. the $0.98 consensus and revenue of $3.45B vs. $3.28B expected, pushing results above street forecasts and supporting the stock’s upward move. Alcoa Cashes In On Higher Aluminum Prices, Eyes More Output In 2026
• Positive Sentiment: Commodity tailwind and 2026 production intent — Management cited higher aluminum prices and signaled plans to increase output next year (including advancing the San Ciprián restart) and expects a modest CBAM premium uplift in Europe, which supports margin outlook. Alcoa expects $10/ton CBAM premium uplift in Europe for 2026 while advancing San Ciprián restart
• Neutral Sentiment: Company releases and call materials provide detail but no major surprises — The BusinessWire press release and slide deck show FY25 revenue and net income progression; investors can review the full presentation for segment-level drivers. Alcoa Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
• Neutral Sentiment: Earnings call transcript and CEO commentary — The Q4 earnings call transcript and a CNBC interview with CEO William Oplinger give color on demand trends, pricing dynamics and capex/operations, useful for modeling but not altering the beat narrative. Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Neutral Sentiment: Alumina deal and capacity shifts under review — Coverage discusses an alumina transaction and capacity changes that could reshape margins and asset mix; implications depend on execution and timing. What Alcoa (AA)’s Alumina Deal And Capacity Shifts Mean For Shareholders
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst skepticism remains — J.P. Morgan reaffirmed a sell rating, reflecting continuing analyst concerns about longer-term demand/valuation despite the near-term beat. That keeps some selling pressure possible. J.P. Morgan Reaffirms Their Sell Rating on Alcoa (AA)
• Negative Sentiment: Valuation and short-term rally scrutiny — Commentary warns the stock’s recent rally raises valuation questions; investors should weigh upside from metals prices and capacity moves against a higher multiple and potential cyclicality. Assessing Alcoa (AA) Valuation After A Strong Short Term Share Price Rally

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of analysts have recently weighed in on AA shares. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Alcoa from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Tuesday, November 25th. HSBC upped their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $41.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, October 17th. Citigroup lifted their price objective on Alcoa from $42.00 to $54.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, December 19th. Argus set a $45.00 target price on Alcoa in a research note on Thursday, October 30th. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. restated an “underweight” rating and set a $50.00 target price (up previously from $45.00) on shares of Alcoa in a report on Thursday, January 8th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, five have issued a Buy rating, five have issued a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $48.83.

Alcoa Company Profile

Alcoa Corporation is a global industry leader in the production and management of aluminum, offering an integrated value chain that spans bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminum smelting and the fabrication of value-added products. The company’s operations are organized into segments that include raw material extraction, chemical processing and the manufacture of metal mill products and engineered solutions.

Alcoa’s product portfolio serves diverse end markets such as aerospace, automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial applications.